Analysis of the market faces Octopus business model after the 360 problems

an Internet application for individual users, its commercial value can basically be expressed with such a formula:


= active user × daily running time × visible time length ratio × user attention

the daily running time "refers to the users every day to run or open application of the average length of time, and the proportion of visible length refers to the application of open or run when the user directly or see the length of time to interact with the proportion of user attention refers to see or interact with the user, attention concentration, lift for example, girlfriend chat information attention is assumed to be 80%, then Sina home page flash advertising attention may be 20%, while the bottom word chain attention may be only 5%.

Daily active users of

QQ is assumed to be 200 million, the daily running time is assumed to be 5 hours, 5 hours, you can really see the QQ interface or the icon of the time may be 3 hours long, visible when the ratio is 60%, and in time to see the QQ interface or icon, basically you will more attention the content, so the user attention can be set to 70%, this time, the QQ daily attention gross is equal to 2× 5× 60%× 70% = 420 million hours · days.

Daily active users

thunder if there are 100 million, the daily running time of 8 hours (because the download itself is very time-consuming), but this 8 hours, can really see thunder interface time only 15 minutes (most people only at the beginning of the download, see the interface) can be seen when the length ratio of only 3.125%, while in when I saw the thunder of the interface, the user’s attention is not high degree of concern for 30%, at this time, the thunder daily attention value equals 1× 8× 3.125%× 30%, · = 7 million 500 thousand hours; probably only equivalent to 1/60 of QQ.

in accordance with the current market capitalization of 400 billion Tencent, the market value of the thunder is probably about 6 billion 600 million, basically should be in line with the current market value of thunder. Of course, this is just a simulation, the data is only a rough estimate. But the whole evaluation method should be clear.

so, how to estimate the value of 360


first, 360 huge active users and the same daily running time amazing (running time basically and the PC itself, the synchronous) active users multiplied by the daily running time of the product, even compared with QQ also won’t be let. So the key question in the back two, the user can see the proportion and the estimation of attention.

360 security guards and the 360 anti-virus itself is a security software, or called bodyguards. The bodyguard’s "professional ethics" is simply a


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